It’s dry, but it could be worse, North Otago Federated Farmers Meat and Wool co-chair Ross Hay says.

Farmers were warned by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) that it would be a hot, dry summer, so “it isn't a big surprise” and most have been well prepared, Ross said.

“Niwa put out that we were going into an El Niño weather pattern, and we've been probably fortuitous that the pattern hasn't properly turned up till now, to a point, because most people - I wouldn't say all - but most people have been able to wean, get rid of lambs, reduce numbers and have made a wee bit of winter feed and got crops in.”

Otago Regional Council science manager Tom Dyer said near-drought conditions means farmers, as well as rural and urban communities, should consider conserving water in the weeks ahead, especially in North and Central Otago.

The Waihemo/Shag River has been below its minimum flow since late January and irrigation has ceased accordingly, while the Waianakarua dropped below its minimum flow in mid-February and irrigation has also ceased.

Tom said both those rivers are still used for domestic water supplies and stock water, and irrigation can still occur where stored water is available.

“ORC staff have been monitoring water takes and in regular dialogue with users when minimum flows are triggered. 

“Staff will be making contact with Shag/Waihemo water users this week to try to understand their current stock numbers and water demand, because if the dry conditions continue further restrictions may be required,” he said.

Niwa’s 35-day weather outlook suggests recent conditions will continue – more unsettled weather with some occasional rain - but with the potential for continued moisture-sapping, hot, dry and windy spells in between.

“Many of our rivers are bouncing in and out of low-flow conditions this summer due to the variable weather conditions,” Tom said.

While the Niwa forecast does not indicate an escalation in drought severity, it suggests continued dry conditions overall, with the effects most keenly felt in North Otago and Central Otago.

A MetService forecast on Monday (February 26) noted that while there may be rain for the east coast of the South Island this week, the amount is not expected to bring any relief.

Ross said the Hakataramea Valley is quite dry, but that was not unusual for this time of year.

Though a number of farmers in the Waitaki district are on either the North Otago or Lower Waitaki irrigation schemes, there is still a “fair proportion” of dry-land farms, especially further up the Waitaki Valley, and he has heard some of them are starting to feed out.

“We're probably in some respects lucky and we've had warnings a wee bit . . . and so, yes it is bloody dry, but I think there's been the warnings that people have actually taken heed in and we're probably lucky that it's been a bit later.”

Rural environmental consultant Emily Anderson agrees things are not as dire as they could be, with both the North Otago and Lower Waitaki irrigation schemes coming from the Waitaki River, which is unlikely to be restricted.

Most of her clients are “okay”, she said, however, many are still battling to get on top of their soil moisture deficit, despite irrigation.

“It’s been a really dry summer, and there hasn't, I guess, been much respite with rainfall. And also with the wind, the ET's been quite high as well - the evapotranspiration, which dries everything out.”

Farmers have been "sacrificing paddocks" and watering selectively, she said.

If are struggling, Ross encourages them to get in contact with the appropriate people, but he doesn't think there is a great need yet.

“It probably depends how long it carries on for,” he said.

“I suppose the biggest issue, I think, is that it's the combination of low prices as well. The whole sentiment out there isn't great, and the dry isn't, sort of, helping. . . it's just another thing everyone has got to deal with.” 

Tom said for the most part, water user compliance with the rules for their waterways have been “outstanding” so far this year.

In South Otago, the Waiwera, Pomahaka and Waitahuna rivers have been low for short periods, but those catchments have received greater rainfall more regularly than those in North and Central Otago.